Prisoners of the Republican-Democrat duopoly

The only thing Americans dislike more than a Republicanpolitician is a Democratic politician. Public approval of Congress,after increasing for a few months after the November elections, hasplummeted to 18 percent, near the low point of last spring afterpassage of Obamacare.

With the two major parties so unpopular, is the country ready fora third party, or at least a nonpartisan third category? Every fouryears, some quixotic independent eyeing the White House getsattention for tapping into the publics (or at least the medias)frustration with Washington. Sometimes its a moderate or a centristlike Mike Bloomberg or Ross Perot, who idealists believe couldstrike some vast, untapped well of American centrism or common-sense problem solving. Other times, the third-party bid gettingattention is on the edges of the spectrum: Ralph Nader on the Left,or Pat Buchanan on the Right.

At best, these third parties play spoiler Perot helped Clintonget elected twice, and Nader tipped the scale to Bush in 2000 leaving many independent-minded activists no choice but to workwithin one of the two major parties. Its a dispiriting bind forambitious independents, but Beltway journalists Matt Welch and NickGillespie sound a hopeful note in their new book, The Declaration ofIndependents.

Just as the Kodak/Fuji and AT&T/MCI duopolies were killed byinnovation that expanded consumer choice, Welch and Gillespie argue,the Republican/Democrat duopoly can be broken, too. Steadily,Americans are refusing to identify with either party, leaving anopening for an independent force. The authors, editors of Reasonmagazine, dont make a Jon Stewart-like appeal to moderates or claimthat common sense is the answer all political problems. Instead,their alternative to the Left/Right, Democrat/Republican duopoly islibertarianism.

Libertarians today are mostly considered a variety ofconservative Ronald Reagan with fewer bombs and more pot. But Welchand Gillespie dont cast libertarianism as one of many politicalideolgies. Instead, they portray it as a truce. Its unpolitics. Theauthors see evidence of a libertarian moment, not so much in publicopinion on policy matters (though outrage about bailouts helps), butin cultural trends that spill over into politics.

Younger Americans dont like being told what to think. Gone is thevoice-of-God Walter Cronkite figure. Younger adults assemble theirown news feeds a la carte, following trusted voices on Twitter andRSS feeds. Even walking through a shopping mall, the authors argue,shows how were much more individualistic as a culture than we usedto be. The authors say theres a proliferation of cliques and typesin high schools and among adults, too. The Internet has helpedpeople find kindred spirits both near and far, making it lessnecessary to modify your interests to match an existing group.Americans, increasingly, choose their own way.

Welch and Gillespie see our cultural trends as evidence thatdecentralization and democratization are taking territory from theforces of control and centralization. The political corollary,naturally, would be a movement that creates more space forindividuality. It would be almost an anti-political movement.

But this is where every dream of an independent or libertarianuprising crashes into reality. You dont win at politics withoutbeing good at politics. The people who are best at politics are thepeople who stand to gain a lot from it special interests and peoplewho get like to play the political game. Neither group is likely toinclude many anti-political decentralizers.

What about the libertarians who are already caught up inpolitics? The think-tankers, the activists, the journalists? Well,theyre another obstacle to a libertarian revolution. For one thing,this is a group famous for infighting. The Libertarian Party hasbeen racked with strife, splits and feuds for its entire existence.Welch and Gillespie want to pitch a big tent, but Beltwaylibertarians are famous for imposing purity tests. (Q: Shouldvending machines marketing heroin to children be allowed on publicsidewalks? A: There shouldnt be public sidewalks.)

The biggest obstacle to a broad libertarian-independent movementmight simply be that many libertarian views are unpopular. Sure,fiscally conservative and socially liberal is a popular self-description. Bailouts, wars, drug prohibition and high taxes areincreasingly unpopular. But how many independents would want toscrap the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or overturn thecivil rights laws banning discrimination by private business?

Declaration of Independents is an important book and a livelyread. Its hard, today, to see an independent-libertarian wavedisrupting the political duopoly. But, as Welch and Gillespie say,Tectonic shifts in the course of human events are almost neverpredicted ahead of time.